Back in September, the NRCC was talking some big talk:
The committee is expecting recruits to emerge soon against Reps. Michael Arcuri (D-N.Y.), John Barrow (D-Ga.), Baron Hill (D-Ind.), David Loebsack (D-Iowa) and Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.), who are all without major committee-recruited GOP challengers. All but Barrow are freshmen.
The NRCC is meeting with potential candidates against Murphy and Rep. Paul Hodes (D-N.H.), another freshman without a major opponent.
Meanwhile, Indiana Republicans have been anxiously awaiting word from former Rep. Mike Sodrel (R), who is rumored to be in for a fourth straight match-up with Hill. And Iraq veteran Wayne Mosley, an orthopedic surgeon, has been mentioned as a potential challenger to Barrow.
How did Tom Cole and his merry crew fare with recruitment? Tell us in comments.
BTW, there is a typo at the very end you meant to write Baron Hill and wrote Barrow instead.
They have not gotten anybody meeting the definition of a top tier challenger. More to the point, what funds have they raised to help their recruits if they did get any? If anything, the Republican Party is loaded with good business people who are far too savvy in reading the tea leaves to know that 2008 is not the year to be recruited as a Republican challenger!
Sodrel was a nice pick-up, but they were always going to get him.
Murphy’s opponent has an interesting story to tell, and it will make a great contrast in November: the Iraqi War veteran who opposed the war, versus the father of an Iraqi War casualty who supports the war.
Arcuri’s potential challenger (businessman Richard Hanna) could be strong, but we won’t know until the FEC filings come in.
Loebsack seems safe, there were some hyped challengers, but none of them had raised enough by the end of the year to even offer an FEC report.
Barrow seems safe, as well. Lots of rumored opposition, but whoever gets after him is going to be getting an awfully late start.
They have also had several other pretty dismal failures, with comparably weak opposition for potentially imperiled freshmen like Zack Space, Tim Walz, John Hall, Ron Klein, and Brad Ellsworth (not one of the above has an active challenger that has raised more than $250K in the campaign cycle thus far).
Managed to get their top pick in AZ-8, Tim Bee.
I think Nick Jordan in KS-3 was also a top prospect. If Lynn Jenkins wins the primary in KS-2, that might also be a top recruit.
Not sure how big a recruit Ann Northup is for KY-3, though.
NM-1, Darren White is their first choice, I think, but he’s in a primary.
they also have top-tier candidates against Gillibrand, Rodriquez, and McNerney….
“If anything, the Republican Party is loaded with good business people who are far too savvy in reading the tea leaves to know that 2008 is not the year to be recruited as a Republican challenger!”
I think most are assuming 2010 would be a better year for Republicans.
However, I don’t think it will be a good year. If the Democrats take the White House and expand their leads in both chambers, I think they will get enough done to keep their poll numbers high through 2012.
Wayne Mosley’s down in Georgia…he has a blog called “Freedom’s Edge” about his experiences in Iraq/Afghanistan. I don’t think he’s still running though.
But I agree that the NRCC did pretty poorly. Arcuri and Murphy have some no-name businessmen challenging them; Loebsack doesn’t have a good challenger either.
The only one I’d be worried about is Baron Hill, who’s in for Hill v. Sodrel IV in a Presidential year. It’s a presidential year in a Republican district, but given how unpopular Bush’s man Mitch [Daniels] is in Southern Indiana, with some help upticket from the IN-Gov candidate, Hill should be alright.
Well, the NRCC found someone – winger Nashua talk-show host Jennifer Horn.
Problem is, there are about 60 other candidates in the race now, including popular and self-funding state senator Bob Clegg. There’s also lawyer and vet Jim Steiner, and former Sununu aide Grant Bosse.
None of them are shaping up to be a real challenge, though I wonder why the NRCC seem to be behind Horn and not Clegg.